The merchants of controlled chaos

Some batters are more chaotic than others, in a better way

Developments in the sphere of T20 cricket have been very, very rampant. What was deemed paradigmatical 4 years ago is closer to being dated now. What’s been consistent is the over-emphasis on the importance of a quicker scoring rate. While we viewed it with a one-eyed binocular before, players and team management is now increasingly focusing on maximizing returns by proper utilization of every resource at hand. I myself am a louder fan of quick-scoring bats in T20s than my friends would bear with (I was almost ostracized numerous times for all the Kohli T20 batter slander I’d laid on them for years before he retired from international games).

It is also now becoming increasingly important that batters who have their games primarily revolve around quick-striking abilities be a lot more self-aware of the conditions around them and their own limitations. A McCullum in a CSK or RCB could never quite get going because, for the lack of a better word, his hitting was mostly rash. This was something very evident in the likes of AB de Villiers, Chris Gayle, Kieron Pollard, and to some extent David Warner. All great hitters of the ball but all very aware of where a game stands and what their own weaknesses are vis-a-vis what’s to come next.

A couple of weeks ago I was wondering who are the most balanced, rational, and in control hitters of the ball out there. And with the data available out there, came to the conclusion that it is really rather easy to shell them out. With teams like SRH taking to hitting like its gully cricket and their opponents in DC and RCB following suit, its becoming increasingly important to have not just pure hitters, but reliable hitters in your XI. Those you’d have a lot more confidence on to dig you out of a hole with 8 overs in a game. There are some hitters whom you can rely on just that tad bit more, and that’s what I had ventured to find out.

In a quest to continue to be fascinating, I call this the ‘Controlled Chaos’ factor or the CC factor, but it’s pretty simple. Here’s a quick ELI5:

You take a batter’s numbers off of aggressive shot attempts against a particular line-length combination bowled by a particular bowling style (off-break, leg break, right-arm pace, etc.) in a particular phase of the match (overs 1-6, 7-11, 12-15, and 16-20), and you evaluate it against three metrics:

1. Their strike rate

2. Their control %, and

3. Their attempt %

And you compare it to how well other batters have fared against the same conditions over the same metrics. A composition of those 3 metrics gives us a CC factor for a particular data point. That CC factor, in all its simplicity, is meant to evaluate how much better a batter’s runs were in a particular phase of the game and against a particular kind of bowling (mapped over the line, length, and bowling style). A CC factor of 2 means comparing over the 3 metrics aforementioned, a batter was twice as effective in his runs than what any other batter would’ve been.

Is this an alternative way of looking at impact? I don’t know. I’m not being rhetorical I’m genuinely unaware of how the underlying computations of impact go about and that’s something I’ve been meaning to read up on ;-; but until then, let’s see where our favorite batters line up here, since I’m sure that most people, like me, look over lists of batter rankings to see where their expected batters lie in order to confirm their suppositions and biases about the game.

Before we begin, some of the caveats and constraints taken into account:

1. The data taken into consideration for these metrics includes ball-by-ball records from the IPL since 2021 (data maintained by Himanish Ganjoo) This was done primarily to normalize the grounds for comparing different batters in different phases playing in different positions

2. These rankings are calculated for spin and pace differently and, after controlling for outliers, require a batter to have scored at least 150 runs against pace and spin each

3. Although the CC score takes the phase of an innings into account and a batter’s overall CC factor can be considered as an absolute number for comparison, I’ll still be grouping the top 10 batters between top-order bats (between 1-3) and middle order bats (between 4 and 7) to make the pool of comparison sounder

4. Pool of data only constitutes batting records for the top 7 batters

Alright then, here we go.

Top-order batters against spin in the IPL since 2021

While some names are obvious up, others did require me to look over the numbers again. Buttler up there is no surprise, being one of the most promising and consistent openers in the league’s history and does especially well against spin in difficult situations. Kinda iconic to have a team’s actual opening pair at the top of the rankings here. While some may be surprised by Sai being so high up there, it’s no surprise to me. His absolute numbers might not warrant him being so high up there but remember that the CC score works on an innings-phase-wise aggregation, and the 12-15 phase, where batters become a lot more tepid, is where he’s gained a very high competitive advantage. Barring his woes outside the IPL and especially in international cricket, Conway has had a few flawless years in the IPL. A lot of you would’ve pegged Abhishek to have topped this list, knowing how well he fares against spin, and he would have, had the period of consideration been between 2022-24. When I ran this model over the last 3 years (because I, myself, was convinced he’d top this list), Abhishek reigned supreme, and by quite the margin.

Ruturaj, again, is no surprise. I’ve been on the bandwagon to have him bat at 3, where he’s better suited to play more overs of spin, and to negate him facing left-arm quicks as much (he strikes at 110 and averages 21 against them in the PP, lowest on both fronts as compared to all of CSK’s top order batters this season), and if they do bring about that change, I’d welcome it with open arms. Shaw at 8 and Warner at 10, but when I went over the numbers again, I found out that they had both, aggressed a lot more and been in control quite more than their peers, especially against good length deliveries.

Time for the list I’d been looking forward to the most since this would star Klaasen, middle order bats vs. spin

Middle-order batters against spin in the IPL since 2021

2.14 for Heinrich Klaasen is the highest for any batter in the competition, and unsurprisingly so. There’s really no aspect of Klaasen’s batting against spin that teams can deem to be weak right now. After some lukewarm years in 2021 and ‘22, LSG did well to realize how to use Stoinis best, and he truly came of age in the last 2 years, especially with that iconic ton against CSK. Between 3-5 are the usual suspects in Shivam Dube, David Miller, and Tilak Varma, league’s strongest hitters against spin of late. Axar at 6 and Rana at 10 were a few tough pills to swallow, especially Rana, and that just may be because Rana’s prominence in the IPL is almost always hindered by the myriad of silly ways he’s managed to get himself out, especially against pace. Let’s hope that playing at no. 3 for RR can change things for the better for him. Glenn Maxwell’s at no. 8 and I’d really hoped for him to have been way higher, possibly even fight for a top. 3 spot here, but his horrible season last year probably spoiled the party for him. Russell just about makes it with 150 runs and I have got to say that I’m really surprised by where he’s positioned, given how well established his dominance is. Going over the data I found out that it was caused by relative weakness in the phase 12-15, especially against SLAs and LBs over certain line-length combinations.

Top-order batters against pace in the IPL since 2021

The batters up top don’t pack a surprise this time either. Travis Head reigns supreme at the top with the antics to cement himself as one of the greatest hitters the league has ever seen. Phil Salt, for all his doubters out there, is ranked at 2, because that man refuses to have a bad season. Gill at 3 and Buttler at 4 with an identical CC factor of 1.63 might be strange for some people, but I find it totally in line with how similar they both are as T20 batter. Buttler won the orange cap in 2022 and Gill won it in 2023. They both struck at 150 and 157 respectively. It’s more in line with my expectations because of how similarly they both pace their innings when juxtaposing their performances over-by-over.

Faf is right there with them because he has been a similar batter to the two where they aren’t the most aggressive hitters by any stretch, but their game revolves around being consistently proactive with constant strike rotation and a higher aggressive attempt % across different phases. Bairstow is at no. 9, and as fluctuating his performances had been since his departure from SRH, I do believe he warranted an in in several XI. He, in fact, would’ve been a net positive to several XIs out there that lack initial intent. Prabhsimran at 10 is also a welcome surprise to me.

Middle-order batters against pace in the IPL since 2021

It feels kinda wrong to term both Tim David and Rinku Singh as middle order bats, but in any case, they would have dominated this ranking system, being the only batters with an overall CC score of > 2 (Jake Fraser-McGurk did too, in fact he would’ve topped the top-order batters’ list, but had to be excluded on account of the constraints).

SKY at 3 and Hetmeyer, Karthik, and Moeen Ali, are all methodically correct picks but those that fall off the public radar, especially Hetmeyer. His game time across innings has varied greatly and for the longest time Rajasthan Royals hasn’t known how to best utilize him, but he’s given consistent returns to them and aided greatly in 2 playoff qualifications in the last 3, finishing 5th in the season they failed to make it.

A valid criticism for this entire model is that it doesn’t take into account batting averages. I did take control percentage across lines, lengths, bowling styles, and innings-phase into consideration but they don’t make for a perfect substitute to a batter’s overall proficiency. We can do so quite simply by plotting a batter’s CC factor against their batting average against aggressive shots. Below are two plots detailing exactly that for pace and spin respectively.

KL, Tilak, and Sai Sudharsan all boast an abysmal average against spin while being aggressive. Maxwell’s score and average took a beating with the 2024 season. Jaiswal boasts a slightly higher CC score than Buttler by Buttler’s a lot more consistent. Klaasen, unsurprisingly, is class apart. Miller and Patidar are almost identical. Abhishek’s great, but pretty volatile.

What’s really, really fascinating to see here is how identically both the plots have lined up, even in terms of where the outliers are positioned. Travis Head is where Sai Sudharsan was, Rinku Singh is where Jos Buttler was, and Tim David is where Heinrich Klaasen was. Chef’s kiss.

I was taken aback to see Moeen average so high, gives me to believe that it’s mostly non-scoring shots that jeopardise his stay. Conway, KL, and Virat are all bundled together. Rohit and Dhawan are here as the master accumulators. Samad ranks high on the CC score but averages quite poor, as does Axar. Joined are the hip are the Englishmen Jonny Bairstow and Liam Livingstone.

While going over the results, it got me to think how the standings would look if I evaluated them keeping only numbers from a particular phase in consideration. This will help assess who are the players that dominate a particular phase of an innings while aggressing a lot more, being more in control, all the while striking quicker too, and that’s exactly what I did.

Batters against pace between overs 7-11

Batters against pace between overs 12-15

It is very important to emphasize that my intention with the CC score was not to give an all-encompassing number to how good a batter is against pace or spin. This model does not incorporate every aspect that goes into the efficiency of a batter. For example, the zones that they hit and how well at that, their ability to accelerate, their ability to mitigate risk. There are pieces out there detailing all of them individually, and it is in conjunction of all such thought processes that one should conclude how to possibly rate a batter. This here is just meant to tell how controlled a batter can be in his chaos.